With last week’s release of eight new statewide polls the probability of President Obama being reelected has rebounded eight points to a new high of over 96%. Governor Romney’s probability of winning has similarly dropped eight points to 3%. These percentages represent the probability of each candidate receiving at least 270 electoral votes. The probability of a tie remains at less than 1%
These results are based upon a statistical model that uses currently available opinion polls for each of the fifty states and the District of Columbia. It analyzes these polls determining each possible outcome with its likelihood of occurring.
Of the eight states involved in the new polls, five – New Mexico, Virginia, Maine, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – have increased their support for the President. Two states – Florida and North Dakota – show increases for Governor Romney. Polls from Virginia and North Carolina indicate strong increases for Obama with both states moving from leaning Romney to now leaning Obama.
Florida which had been showing a fractional advantage towards Obama remains close but the slight advantage has now moved to Romney.
There are still three states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Tennessee that are in the tossup category. Tossup states are the states in which there is not a statistically clear winner.
States that are leaning Obama are currently CO, MI, NV, NC, OH, and PA.
The states that are leaning Romney are FL, IN, KS, KY, SC, and SD.
The states that are likely wins for the President are ME, NM, OR, VA, and WI.
MO, and MT are likely wins for Governor Romney.
The final category are those states that would be considered statistically certain outcomes.
For President Obama these are CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VT, and WA.
For Governor Romney the certain win states are AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, TX, UT, WV, and WY.
The box plots show the distribution of predicted electoral votes for each candidate over the past seven weeks. The center rectangle includes the middle 50% of the outcomes while the whiskers cover the most likely 99.5% of outcomes. The green line marks the 270 electoral vote cutoff needed to win the election.
The time series plot tracks the trend in the probability of winning since the middle of May.